STATE STREET CORP (STT) Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 total revenue rose 12% year-over-year to $3.412B, driven by broad-based fee revenue growth (+13% to $2.662B) and higher NII (+10% to $749M); GAAP EPS was $2.46 and $2.60 excluding notable items .
- Investment Servicing and Investment Management both expanded, with Investment Management revenue up 15% YoY to $628M and pre-tax margin at 31.5% .
- New business momentum accelerated: $154M of new servicing fee revenue wins in Q4, $1.1T AUC/A wins, and $346M fee revenue backlog with $3.0T AUC/A to be installed; Alpha added 2 mandates (7 in 2024) .
- FY2025 outlook: fee revenue up ~3–5%, NII ~flat (+/– low-single-digits), expenses up ~2–3%, positive operating leverage; currency translation to reduce fee growth by ~1ppt .
- Consensus estimate data from S&P Global was unavailable due to vendor limits; therefore, beats/misses vs Street cannot be assessed this quarter (S&P Global request limit exceeded).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Broad-based fee growth: servicing (+6% YoY), management (+20%), FX trading (+17%), securities finance (+22%), and software/processing (+9%) supported revenue expansion .
- Strong sales and pipeline: $154M Q4 servicing fee wins; $346M fee revenue and $3.0T AUC/A to be installed; Alpha mandates totaled 7 in 2024, underscoring strategy execution .
- Management’s tone confident on sustainable fee growth: “the real guide…is 5% to 7% [gross];…FX headwind…takes it down to 3% to 5% for 2025” (CEO) .
What Went Wrong
- Deposit mix headwinds to NII: management expects continued decline in non-interest-bearing deposits and sensitivity to non-U.S. rate cuts ($5–$10M per cut per quarter in EUR/GBP) .
- Pricing headwinds and client activity adjustments persisted in servicing fees, partly offsetting market and new business tailwinds .
- Estimates comparison unavailable: S&P Global consensus retrieval failed due to rate limits; beats/misses vs Street cannot be evaluated this quarter (S&P Global request limit exceeded).
Financial Results
Segment and revenue detail:
KPIs:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “2024 marked an important year… strong results… both positive fee and total operating leverage supported by record NII” (CEO) .
- “The real guide… is 5% to 7% [gross fee growth]… FX headwind… takes it down to 3% to 5% for 2025” (CEO) .
- “We expect our loan growth to continue… ~14% in 2024… particularly with private markets clients” (Investment Services CFO) .
- “Alpha… distinctive front-to-back… longer contract terms (7+ years)… ~35 announced, ~25 installed” (CEO/Investment Services CFO) .
- “AI… broad deployment of machine learning today… early LLM use cases (client service chat, HR)… careful data controls” (CEO) .
Q&A Highlights
- NII outlook drivers: deposit levels/mix, non-U.S. rate sensitivity ($5–$10M per EUR/GBP cut per quarter), loan growth, investment portfolio rollovers (~$4B per quarter; +100–150bps pickup) .
- Deposits: seasonality after year-end; non-interest-bearing expected to trend lower; overall deposits expected ~$230–$240B range (directional) .
- Fee growth: core fee growth ex BlackRock roll-off and FX described; gross 5–7% with nets to 3–5% for 2025 .
- Prime services and securities finance: integral growth area; ~one-third to half of ~$450M securities finance revenue; deepens client relationships .
- Capital return: commitment to return ~80% of earnings; manageable leverage constraints; CET1 is the dominant binding constraint .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable due to vendor limits during retrieval; as a result, beats/misses vs Street cannot be assessed this quarter (Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable due to request limit exceeded).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Fee momentum plus backlog ($346M to be installed; $3.0T AUC/A) supports FY2025 fee growth target of ~3–5%, despite FX translation headwinds (~1ppt) .
- NII to stabilize around current levels with modest variability; watch non-U.S. rate paths (EUR/GBP) and ongoing decline in non-interest-bearing deposits .
- Private markets lending and prime services are strategic growth levers, reinforcing cross-sell (servicing, FX, repo) and deepening client relationships .
- SSGA’s product cadence (~60 launches in 2024) and retail intermediary expansion underpin double-digit management fee growth; sustained ETF share gains in U.S./EMEA .
- Alpha front-to-back wins (2 in Q4; 7 in 2024) and longer contract terms increase revenue durability and retention; installation standardization should improve onboarding cadence .
- Operating discipline: FY2025 expense growth ~2–3% with ~$500M productivity saves; continued positive operating leverage targeted .
- Capital return policy (~80% of earnings) remains intact; watch CET1 dynamics and leverage ratios as balance sheet grows and preferred equity usage flexes .
Bolded and surprise-worthy elements:
- Record-like breadth in fee growth across categories and $154M Q4 servicing wins; AUC/A wins $1.1T in the quarter .
- FY2025 fee growth guide (3–5%) and NII flat guide despite deposit mix headwinds—supported by loan growth and security yield rollovers .